Stephen Bush looks ahead to the coming political year. But I expect Sadiq Khan to end Labour's losing run in May; Zac Goldsmith is, in my Missing: pundits punters.
Let's look at the facts to try to understand what happened. markets were full of regular-folk punters and they got blind-sided by Brexit just the same. . probabilities finely predict the proportion of events you can expect to actually occur. .. of 16 other candidates, and defied the expert forecasts of countless political pundits.
Politics what pundits punters expect happen flying cheapFor Democrats, a stack of coincidences and circumstantial evidence point firmly to a conspiracy. John Kasich has no meaningful route to the nomination. Good news for those who followed my advice to lay Osborne when favourite several months ago, and for punters holding much better odds about his two main rivals.
Now the media had the toss-up contest they craved, the trend begun to flip. Again this was effectively a binary choice, between two unpopular candidates in a country deeply divided along party and ideological lines. Explanation to follow soon! Never miss a great news story! Confirmation bias it was not. Regardless of the ultimate case verdict or credibility of his accusers, Trump can only lose from this publicity.
Flying fast: Politics what pundits punters expect happen
- The field for that role is wide-open. National elections were won by the favourite.
- NEWS MANS PACEMAKER USED TRACK CHARGE CRIME
- If an opposition was competitive, it was likelier to be UKIP.
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- Politics what pundits punters expect happen
What to Expect on Trump's Inauguration Day - Rich Rubino Interview Political Author
Politics what pundits punters expect happen -- going easy
While all polls show people very pessimistic about the economy, almost all the trackers of public confidence in the economy show it heading upwards since the summer. On the worst interpretation, both Clinton and Trump were allowed to tell straightforward lies. Unless the polls have been systemically wrong from the start, her lead is bombproof and, given the balance of the electoral college, a Trump victory feels almost unimaginable.